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Selasa, 22 November 2011



Islamic Banking and Finance (IBF) has enjoyed unprecedented growth in recent years in the world, while the GCC remains a main hub of IBF activities. This is mainly due to the large wealth and capital accumulated in the region, which has provided the required liquidity for the IBF industry to enjoy double-digit growth in recent years, at least until the impact of the global financial crisis hit the region. Indeed, during the financial crisis, a slowdown in the asset growth and operations in the IBF industry has been observed as compared to previous period, including sukuk defaults. However, after the initial impact of the global financial crisis, the IBF industry in the GCC has managed to pick up again in recent months without major damage. As part of such positive developments, the sukuk market has overcome the contraction and is now enjoying another phase of expansion.

Minggu, 20 November 2011

MENGAPA BANK SYARIAH RELATIF LEBIH TAHAN KRISIS?: Aplikasi Logistic Regression untuk Sistem Deteksi Dini Krisis Finansial di Indonesia


The financial crisis repeatedly struck various countries in the world by turns both developing and developed countries. In fact, during the period of a modern economy such as now, its intensity becomes more frequent and acute. Therefore, early detection system crisis became an important presence in order to avoid the negative impact of the crisis more severe.
This study tried to examine indicators of anything that can be used as reference in predicting how likely will the crisis in a country like Indonesia are dual banking by using binary logistic regression method.
The results suggest an important conclusion is interesting. First, Islamic banks tend to have problems with liquidity (with evidence of significant FAR) while the conventional banks tend to have problems with solvency (CAR significant). From this it can be concluded that the new Islamic bank will be a crisis if the real sector disturbed. While conventional banks will continue to flare up if there is disruption of the financial crisis. Second, a significant M2RES related variables, both Islamic and conventional models, then this could be a result of the enactment of fiat money and fractional reserve banking system (FRBS). Though both of these is a contributor to excess money supply is large enough. So it becomes a natural thing to understand if the two models-both Islamic and conventional, have similar conditions. As a consequence, the Islamic banking entity actually not really going to be free from the adverse effects of financial crisis.
The third conclusion is no less important is to depart from the fact that the interest rate (INTR) found significant value in the conventional model, but not if he was on the model of sharia, then it can be concluded that the policy rate as BI-rate is indeed very effective instrument to control and influence Other monetary following behaviors are also conventional banks. But on the other hand, it also indicates that the conventional banking system is quite vulnerable to the volatility of monetary and financial crisis. Thus, a rational reason for the monetary authority in this Bank Indonesia to give more support to the sustainability of Islamic banking and finance in Indonesia with the aim of achieving a stable monetary conditions and optimal.

Kata Kunci: Early Warning System, Krisis Perbankan, Sistem Moneter Ganda, Regresi Logistik